Jason Bryer takes us through a classic introductory problem to Bayesian statistics:
I find that when teaching statistics (and probability) it is often helpful to simulate data first in order to get an understanding of the problem. The Monty Hall problem recently came up in a class so I implemented a function to play the game.
The Monty Hall problem results from a game show, Let’s Make a Deal, hosted by Monty Hall. In this game, the player picks one of three doors. Behind one is a car, the other two are goats. After picking a door the player is shown the contents of one of the other two doors, which because the host knows the contents, is a goat. The question to the player: Do you switch your choice?
This is one of the biggest “aha!” moments in statistics, in the sense that it is not intuitively obvious and is easy to get wrong, but once you understand why it is true, it makes reasoning over time and knowledge changes easier. H/T R-Bloggers.