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xgboost and Small Numbers of Subtrees

John Mount covers an interesting issue you can run into when using xgboost:

While reading Dr. Nina Zumel’s excellent note on bias in common ensemble methods, I ran the examples to see the effects she described (and I think it is very important that she is establishing the issue, prior to discussing mitigation).
In doing that I ran into one more avoidable but strange issue in using xgboost: when run for a small number of rounds it at first appears that xgboost doesn’t get the unconditional average or grand average right (let alone the conditional averages Nina was working with)!

It’s not something you’ll hit very often, but if you’re trying xgboost against a small enough data set with few enough rounds, it is something to keep in mind.