Eugene Meidinger shares his thoughts on the future:
Since we are prognosticating, I want to take a guess at one of the constraints limiting the future. I present you with Meidinger’s law:
An industry’s growth is constrained by how much your junior dev can learn in two years.
Let me explain. On my team, one of our developers’ just left for a different company. We also have a college student who will be going full time in May, upon graduation. How long do you think it’s going to take the new guy to get up to speed?
And how long do you think he’s going to stay?
This I think is a useful dictum which explains a pretty good amount of industry movement.