# Bayes’ Theorem In A Picture

2019-04-17

Bayes’ Theorem is a way to calculate conditional probability. The formula is very simple to calculate, but it can be challenging to fit the right pieces into the puzzle. The first challenge comes from defining your event (A) and test (B); The second challenge is rephrasing your question so that you can work backwards: turning P(A|B) into P(B|A). The following image shows a basic example involving website traffic. For more simple examples, see: Bayes Theorem Problems.

Click through for the image and related links.

## MAPE and Its Flaws

2019-08-22

Jan Fischer takes us through Mean Absolute Percentage Error as a measure of forecast quality: Particular small actual values bias the MAPE.If any true values are very close to zero, the corresponding absolute percentage errors will be extremely high and therefore bias the informativity of the MAPE (Hyndman & Koehler 2006). The following graph clarifies this […]

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## Calculating AUC in R

2019-08-20

Andrew Treadway shows how you can calculate Area Under the Curve in R: AUC is an important metric in machine learning for classification. It is often used as a measure of a model’s performance. In effect, AUC is a measure between 0 and 1 of a model’s performance that rank-orders predictions from a model. For […]

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