In this video, I provide an introduction to Bayes’ theorem, explaining the key concepts and terms, as well as solving a totally realistic problem via Bayesian analysis.
My goal in this video was to explain a counter-intuitive phenomenon: how much a positive test or piece of information moves the needle depends primarily on how frequently the event normally happens and how frequently we generate false positives in tests. The less common the scenario, the less your positive test actually moves the needle.