Validating Errors in A/B Testing

Roland Stevenson shows us how to validate Type I and Type II errors when performing A/B tests in R:

In this post, we seek to develop an intuitive sense of what type I (false-positive) and type II (false-negative) errors represent when comparing metrics in A/B tests, in order to gain an appreciation for “peeking”, one of the major problems plaguing the analysis of A/B test today.

To better understand what “peeking” is, it helps to first understand how to properly run a test. We will focus on the case of testing whether there is a difference between the conversion rates cr_a and cr_b for groups A and B. We define conversion rate as the total number of conversions in a group divided by the total number of subjects. The basic idea is that we create two experiences, A and B, and give half of the randomly-selected subjects experience A and half B. Then, after some number of users have gone through our test, we measure how many conversions happened in each group. The important question is: how many users do we need to have in groups A and B in order to measure a difference in conversion rates of a particular size?

Read the whole thing. H/T R-Bloggers

Related Posts

MAPE and Its Flaws

Jan Fischer takes us through Mean Absolute Percentage Error as a measure of forecast quality: Particular small actual values bias the MAPE.If any true values are very close to zero, the corresponding absolute percentage errors will be extremely high and therefore bias the informativity of the MAPE (Hyndman & Koehler 2006). The following graph clarifies this […]

Read More

From Excel to R: Three Examples

Abdul Majed Raja has a few examples of things which are easy to do in Excel and how you can do them in R: Create a difference variable between the current value and the next valueThis is also known as lead and lag – especially in a time series dataset this varaible becomes very important in feature engineering. In […]

Read More

Categories

August 2019
MTWTFSS
« Jul  
 1234
567891011
12131415161718
19202122232425
262728293031