Sebastian Sauer works out a coin flip problem:

A stochastic problem, with application to financial theory. Some say it goes back to Warren Buffett. I relied to my colleague Norman Markgraf, who pointed it out to me.

Assume there are two coins. One is fair, one is loaded. The loaded coin has a bias of 60-40. Now, the question is: How many coin flips do you need to be “sure enough” (say, 95%) that you found the loaded coin?

Let’s simulate la chose.

It took a few more flips than I had expected but the number is not outlandish.

Kevin Feasel

2019-04-05

Data Science, R