Solving The Monty Hall Problem With R

Miroslav Rajter builds a Monty Hall problem simulator using R:

The original and most simple scenario of the Monty Hall problem is this: You are in a prize contest and in front of you there are three doors (A, B and C). Behind one of the doors is a prize (Car), while behind others is a loss (Goat). You first choose a door (let’s say door A). The contest host then opens another door behind which is a goat (let’s say door B), and then he ask you will you stay behind your original choice or will you switch the door. The question behind this is what is the better strategy?

This is something that puzzled me for a very long time. This is fundamentally a Bayesian problem built around processing new information, and once I understood that, the answer was a lot clearer. H/T R-Bloggers.

Related Posts

Forensic Accounting: Cohort Analysis

I continue my series on forensic accounting techniques with cohort analysis: In the last post, we focused on high-level aggregates to gain a basic understanding of our data. We saw some suspicious results but couldn’t say much more than “This looks weird” due to our level of aggregation. In this post, I want to dig […]

Read More

Bayes’ Theorem In A Picture

Stephanie Glen gives us the basics of Bayes’ Theorem in a picture: Bayes’ Theorem is a way to calculate conditional probability. The formula is very simple to calculate, but it can be challenging to fit the right pieces into the puzzle. The first challenge comes from defining your event (A) and test (B); The second […]

Read More

Categories

February 2019
MTWTFSS
« Jan Mar »
 123
45678910
11121314151617
18192021222324
25262728