Some machine learning models are simple and easy to understand. We know how changing the inputs will affect the predicted outcome and can make justification for each prediction. However, with the recent advances in machine learning and artificial intelligence, models have become very complex, including complex deep neural networks and ensembles of different models. We refer to these complex models as black box models.
Unfortunately, the complexity that gives extraordinary predictive abilities to black box models also makes them very difficult to understand and trust. The algorithms inside the black box models do not expose their secrets. They don’t, in general, provide a clear explanation of why they made a certain prediction. They just give us a probability, and they are opaque and hard to interpret. Sometimes there are thousands (even millions) of model parameters, there’s no one-to-one relationship between input features and parameters, and often combinations of multiple models using many parameters affect the prediction. Some of them are also data hungry. They need enormous amounts of data to achieve high accuracy. It’s hard to figure out what they learned from those data sets and which of those data points have more influence on the outcome than the others.
This post reminds me of a story I’d heard about a financial organization using neural networks to build accurate models, but then needing to decompose the models into complex decision trees to explain to auditors that they weren’t violating any laws in the process.