Trust the Process
There are three steps to the process of solving the simplest of Naive Bayes algorithms. They are:
1. Find the probability of winning a game (that is, our prior probability).
2. Find the probability of winning given each input variable: whether Josh Allen starts the game, whether the team is home or away, whether the team scores 14 points, and who the top receiver was.
3. Plug in values from our new data into the formula to obtain the posterior probability.
This is an algorithm you want to solve by hand first—it’s just that easy. Then, once you understand it, let a computer do the work for larger data sets. Also, Super Bowl 2020 because I’m the kind of overly optimistic fool required of Bills fans. Just gonna leave this link here.