Multi-Shot Games

Dan Goldstein explains a counter-intuitive probability exercise:

Peter Ayton is giving a talk today at the London Judgement and Decision Making Seminar

Imagine being obliged to play Russian roulette – twice (if you are lucky enough to survive the first game). Each time you must spin the chambers of a six-chambered revolver before pulling the trigger. However you do have one choice: You can choose to either (a) use a revolver which contains only 2 bullets or (b) blindly pick one of two other revolvers: one revolver contains 3 bullets; the other just 1 bullet. Whichever particular gun you pick you must use every time you play. Surprisingly, option (b) offers a better chance of survival

My recommendation is to avoid playing Russian roulette.

Related Posts

Where Machine Learning And Econometrics Collide

Dave Giles shares some thoughts on how machine learning and econometrics relate: What is Machine Learning (ML), and how does it differ from Statistics (and hence, implicitly, from Econometrics)? Those are big questions, but I think that they’re ones that econometricians should be thinking about. And if I were starting out in Econometrics today, I’d […]

Read More

Solving Naive Bayes By Hand

I have a post that requires math and is meaner toward the Buffalo Bills than I normally am: Trust the ProcessThere are three steps to the process of solving the simplest of Naive Bayes algorithms. They are:1. Find the probability of winning a game (that is, our prior probability).2. Find the probability of winning given each input variable: whether Josh Allen starts the game, whether the team is […]

Read More