Multi-Shot Games

Dan Goldstein explains a counter-intuitive probability exercise:

Peter Ayton is giving a talk today at the London Judgement and Decision Making Seminar

Imagine being obliged to play Russian roulette – twice (if you are lucky enough to survive the first game). Each time you must spin the chambers of a six-chambered revolver before pulling the trigger. However you do have one choice: You can choose to either (a) use a revolver which contains only 2 bullets or (b) blindly pick one of two other revolvers: one revolver contains 3 bullets; the other just 1 bullet. Whichever particular gun you pick you must use every time you play. Surprisingly, option (b) offers a better chance of survival

My recommendation is to avoid playing Russian roulette.

Related Posts

Non-Linear Classifiers with Support Vector Machines

Rahul Khanna continues a series on support vector machines: In this blog post, we will look at a detailed explanation of how to use SVM for complex decision boundaries and build Non-Linear Classifiers using SVM. The primary method for doing this is by using Kernels. In linear SVM we find margin maximizing hyperplane with features […]

Read More

Vectors for Programmers

John Mount has a couple of videos available: We have just released two new free video lectures on vectors from a programmer’s point of view. I am experimenting with what ideas do programmers find interesting about vectors, what concepts do they consider safe starting points, and how to condense and present the material. Click through […]

Read More