Introduction To Probability

Mala Mahadevan covers some basics of probability:

Probability is an important statistical and mathematical concept to understand. In simple terms – probability refers to the chances of possible outcome of an event occurring within the domain of multiple outcomes. Probability is indicated by a whole number – with 0 meaning that the outcome has no chance of occurring and 1 meaning that the outcome is certain to happen. So it is mathematically represented as P(event) = (# of outcomes in event / total # of outcomes). In addition to understanding this simple thing, we will also look at a basic example of conditional probability and independent events.

It’s a good intro to a critical topic in statistics.  If I would add one thing to this, it would be to state that probability is always conditional upon something.  It’s fair to write something as P(Event) understanding that it’s a shortcut, but in reality, it’s always P(Event | Conditions), where Conditions is the set of assumptions we made in collecting this sample.

Related Posts

Explaining Confidence Intervals

Mala Mahadevan explains what confidence intervals are: Suppose I look at a sampling of 100 americans who are asked if they approve of the job the supreme court is doing. Let us say for simplicity’s sake that the only two answers possible are yes or no. Out of 100, say 40% say yes. As an […]

Read More

Introduction To Bayesian Statistics

Kennie Nybo Pontoppidan has just completed a course on Bayesian statistics: Last month I finished a four-week course on Bayesian statistics. I have always wondered why people deemed it hard, and why I heard that the computations quickly became complicated. The course wasn’t that hard, and it gave a nice introduction to prior/posterior distributions and […]

Read More

Categories

March 2017
MTWTFSS
« Feb Apr »
 12345
6789101112
13141516171819
20212223242526
2728293031