Probability is an important statistical and mathematical concept to understand. In simple terms – probability refers to the chances of possible outcome of an event occurring within the domain of multiple outcomes. Probability is indicated by a whole number – with 0 meaning that the outcome has no chance of occurring and 1 meaning that the outcome is certain to happen. So it is mathematically represented as P(event) = (# of outcomes in event / total # of outcomes). In addition to understanding this simple thing, we will also look at a basic example of conditional probability and independent events.
It’s a good intro to a critical topic in statistics. If I would add one thing to this, it would be to state that probability is always conditional upon something. It’s fair to write something as P(Event) understanding that it’s a shortcut, but in reality, it’s always P(Event | Conditions), where Conditions is the set of assumptions we made in collecting this sample.