# Multi-Shot Games

2017-05-26

Peter Ayton is giving a talk today at the London Judgement and Decision Making Seminar

Imagine being obliged to play Russian roulette – twice (if you are lucky enough to survive the first game). Each time you must spin the chambers of a six-chambered revolver before pulling the trigger. However you do have one choice: You can choose to either (a) use a revolver which contains only 2 bullets or (b) blindly pick one of two other revolvers: one revolver contains 3 bullets; the other just 1 bullet. Whichever particular gun you pick you must use every time you play. Surprisingly, option (b) offers a better chance of survival

My recommendation is to avoid playing Russian roulette.

## Bayesian Average

2017-06-21

Jelte Hoekstra has a fun post applying the Bayesian average to board game ratings: Maybe you want to explore the best boardgames but instead you find the top 100 filled with 10/10 scores. Experience many such false positives and you will lose faith in the rating system. Let’s be clear this isn’t exactly incidental either: […]

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## Calculating Relative Risk In T-SQL

2017-06-20

Mala Mahadevan explains how to calculate relative risk using T-SQL: In this post we will explore a common statistical term – Relative Risk, otherwise called Risk Factor. Relative Risk is a term that is important to understand when you are doing comparative studies of two groups that are different in some specific way. The most […]

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