I quickly honed into the fact that the bad query was doing a lazy spool with 6 BILLION rows versus the 229 million in the good query. However, my friend who was looking at Management Studio was asking where I was getting those numbers. This is what the XML from the original plan showed:
<RelOp AvgRowSize=”51″ EstimateCPU=”0.00889634″ EstimateIO=”0.01″ EstimateRebinds=”0″ EstimateRewinds=”139581″ EstimatedExecutionMode=”Row” EstimateRows=”48868″
LogicalOp=”Lazy Spool” NodeId=”55″ Parallel=”true” PhysicalOp=”Table Spool” EstimatedTotalSubtreeCost=”1242.86″>
This is a helpful feature in scenarios like this, where operator weight is skewed because it only shows a single run but in reality happens more than once.